(Reuters) – U.S. shopper costs elevated as anticipated in October, and progress towards bringing inflation down has slowed since mid-year, which may end in fewer rate of interest cuts from the Federal Reserve subsequent 12 months.
The shopper worth index rose 0.2% for the fourth straight month, the Labor Department stated on Wednesday. In the 12 months by means of October, the CPI superior 2.6% after climbing 2.4% in September. The headline numbers had been predicted by economists polled by Reuters. The up-tick in annual inflation additionally displays final 12 months’s low studying dropping out of the calculation.
CPI excluding meals and vitality elevated 0.3% in October, rising by the identical margin for the third consecutive month. In the 12 months by means of October, the so-called core CPI gained 3.3%. That adopted an identical advance in September.
MARKET REACTION:
STOCKS: U.S. inventory index futures turned 0.2% increased, pointing to a gradual open on Wall Street BONDS: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.378% and the two-year yield fell to 4.273percentFOREX: The greenback index softened extra, off 0.2% and the euro was up 0.16%, a bit firmer
COMMENTS:
ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT DAKOTA WEALTH IN FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT
“The fact that CPI came in as expected relieved some concerns the market had going into the report. You’re seeing Treasury yields move down, which is positive and helping stock futures.”
“The in-line number is allowing the market to breathe a little easier and to focus more on the positives of less regulation, a potential increase in business.”
“I don’t think this report has any bearing on the December FOMC meeting and that’s what the market is reacting to as well. Right now, we’re on the glide path to another rate cut. It could get disrupted but right now it looks like we could get another rate cut.”
SEEMA SHAH, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST, PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (by e mail)
“Given nervousness across the extra inflationary facets of Trump’s coverage proposals, markets appeared primed for an upside inflation shock immediately. A warmer-than-expected inflation quantity may have satisfied the Fed to face pat at its subsequent assembly so the in-line quantity can nearly be thought-about as a beat. A December minimize continues to be within the playing cards.
“Yet, with policymakers already so cautious about the risk of renewed price pressures, particularly amidst the continued strength of the U.S. economy and the potential Trump policy agenda, the Fed will need to tread a cautious path. The rising likelihood is that, come early 2025, rather than reducing policy rates at each meeting, the Fed is likely to slow its cutting pace to every other meeting.”
