Storylines to take a look at in Week 11: Russell Wilson & George Pickens are a match made in fantasy soccer heaven

The day I prolonged feared was coming, lastly received right here.

My sons drawback me to play video video video games frequently. And I get it. Since I’m dad, I’m the objective. But I’ve spent additional hours gaming than they’ve been on this earth. I (assume I) know additional. And however, I found myself watching a third-place finish in a recreation of “Super Smash Bros.” I’m pretty sure my controller had essential drift to it, nevertheless I’ll preserve the L.

There’s on a regular basis additional nuance or context we have now to ponder. Like, for me, I must’ve realized my boys had been honing their talents sooner than daring me to a match. Watching Week 10 felt associated. I would’ve thought Joe Flacco generating multiple turnovers would’ve launched Anthony Richardson once more into our lives. I was wrong. Russell Wilson can’t presumably maintain getting away with moonballs to take care of the Steelers offense going. Yep, fallacious as soon as extra.

However, it’s additional about what we’re capable of pull from the best storylines to help us make lineup alternatives. So, with a month sooner than the playoffs, let’s dive into the headlines to tease out the takeaways we’ll need for Week 11.

Nico Collins: the savior of the Texans’ offense?

My knee-jerk response to C.J. Stroud’s second interception proper right here was Nico Collins would’ve come down with the ball:

Well, maybe my intrusive thought was additional coping than the remainder. Sure, Collins has eight inches on Tank Dell. But Stroud lofting the ball eliminates any debate about his WR’s bodily stature. Plus, even a cursory check out the Texans’ QB would current he hasn’t carried out his biggest ball over the previous month.

• EPA per DB: 0.05 (Weeks 1-4), -0.15 (Weeks 7-10)

• Completion Percentage Over Expected: +0.6%, -8.0%

• Explosive Pass Rate: 17.8%, 13.6%

With Collins (and Stefon Diggs), Stroud had two top-10 finishes inside the first month of the season. His 263.5 passing yards per recreation had been the fifth-most of any passer. However, hindsight being 20/20, there have been warning indicators.

Stroud confronted stress on better than 25.0% of his dropbacks in every recreation. Defenses keyed in on Houston’s ailing offensive line and despatched 5 or additional rushers to take care of Stroud from getting cosy. Only Baker Mayfield (42.6% blitz value) observed additional defenders attempting to interrupt by the use of the highway. We dismissed the concerns as Stroud continued to make magic on third down. But now, he has fewer decisions downfield. And the shifts in offensive play-calling have made his situation even worse.

• Early-Down Passing Rate: 54.3% (Weeks 1-4), 44.9% (Weeks 7-10)

• Early-Down Rushing Success Rate: 40.0%, 34.2%

• Air Yards per Attempt: 7.6, 9.7

Joe Mixon’s workload has elevated from 22.5 to a whopping 26.8 touches per recreation. However, the Texans’ run-blocking talents (or lack thereof) have decrease his yards per contact by 16.3%. As Houston has gotten farther behind the sticks, Stroud’s objective depth has climbed, rising his volatility as a passer. And the offensive line woes have solely elevated. Stroud’s stress value has been above 40.0% in his closing 4 begins, and he’s taken plenty of sacks in each (eight[!] in Week 10). So, together with a WR even practically nearly as good as Collins received’t seem to be a carry till he plans on getting proper right into a three-point stance.

But he was nonetheless the WR2 complete in PPG for a motive.

The Texans used quick-game concepts (passes with a imply time to throw beneath 2.5 seconds) on 44.0% of Stroud’s dropbacks in Weeks 1-4. Unsurprisingly, Collins led the workers in targets on these concepts (23) at a clip of two.97 yards per route run. Put one different technique, he turned these 23 appears to be into 14 first downs. That was whereas moreover creating explosives on 45.0% of the alternative makes an try that received right here his technique. We can’t problem when Stroud’s security will improve, nevertheless collectively along with his WR1 once more (and advantageous matchups in opposition to Dallas and Jacksonville on the schedule), we should all the time see the duo once more inside the top-12 dialogue shortly.

The winds of change are blowing in Chicago

Jaxon Smith-Njigba warned us about Shane Waldron. However, it took the vibes hitting rock bottom for the Bears to make a change. Normally, I’d say a swap on offense is sweet. Just check out the Saints. But for Chicago, there’s a number of drawback defending my optimism at bay.

Nate does an outstanding job of highlighting Williams’s strengths above. We gained’t see it inside the boxscore, nevertheless the rookie QB already has command of the offense sooner than the snap (heavy emphasis on “before the snap”). Williams can acknowledge defensive alignments and shift the security (which sometimes backfires) to take care of the offense transferring. And however, even in that video, we see one in all many points plaguing the Bears.

Williams having to create out of building has develop to be one factor he should do in some unspecified time sooner or later in every drive. Of his classmates, solely he’s seen in all probability probably the most blitzes in obvious passing circumstances. However, the offensive line isn’t the (solely) root set off.

To go together with a high-pressure value, Williams takes longer to launch the ball. His 2.85-sec widespread time to throw in obvious passing circumstances ranks as a result of the ninth-slowest. The delay signifies he’s not working the offense as designed. And, given how his receivers have reacted to their QB being beneath duress, there’s a disconnect between Williams and the play-calling.

Even on the two-man route above, the receivers are well-covered far earlier the sticks. Williams has Cole Kmet as a checkdown for minimal obtain nevertheless opts to attend for the more durable throw. Even when the situation is neutral, he’s in survival mode. But it’s not as if, when the play breaks down, we get a better mannequin of Williams.

• EPA per Play (on +2.5 sec throws): -0.23 (thirty third of 36 qualifiers – min. 120 dropbacks)

• Scramble Rate: 10.5% (sixteenth)

• Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 31.5% (4th)

His classmates have acknowledged find out how to reply to emphasize since they turned starters. Jayden Daniels has scrambled 32 situations (lots of the rookies) when defenders get to him. Bo Nix (16) and Drake Maye (14) have moreover restricted unfavourable performs via using their ft. Williams (12) has held his ground to the workers’s detriment. And with Chicago’s upcoming schedule, we’d need better than a coaching change to encourage some confidence.

If one in all many Bears’ WRs had been the focal point of the offense, I’d have them as a FLEX alternative by the use of their gauntlet of NFC matchups over the next 5 weeks (with the 49ers in Week 14). But all three earned six targets closing week. Keenan Allen’s slot place appears to be safe, nevertheless his 2.6 yards of separation are a occupation low. With plenty of parts of the offense needing to reinforce, leaving Bears’ pass-catchers in your bench is the right switch until we see points flip spherical.

George Pickens is unstoppable with Russell Wilson

George Pickens’ standing as Pittsburgh’s WR1 was certainly not in question. The Steelers despatched Diontae Johnson proper right down to Carolina. Pickens’ solely rivals was third-rounder Roman Wilson and FA cast-offs Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek. So, by the use of six weeks, seeing Pickens with top-10 utilization metrics wasn’t a shock.

• Target Share: 28.9% (Third)

• Air Yard Share: 46.4% (fifth)

• Yards per Route Run: 2.28 (eighth)

While nonetheless making big plays downfield, Pickens bore all the marks of a top-12 receiver. But his fantasy scores instructed a particular story. At 9.9 PPR PPG, Pittsburgh’s WR1 was no increased than Christian Kirk (9.9), aka Jacksonville’s WR2. Ironically, Wan’Dale Robinson (13.1) stood head and shoulders above the Steelers’ playmaker. However, Pickens’ obtrusive deficiency was the similar in every circumstances: touchdowns. Despite all the explosive catches, he was however to hunt out the tip zone.

Luckily, all it took was a well-timed QB change to unravel that draw back.

Admittedly, it’s solely been three video video games, and Pickens has scored in two of the three. But there’s no denying Russell Wilson’s have an effect on on the offense.

• Passing Yards per Game: 245.7 (Wilson), 184.3 (Fields)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.19, 0.04

• Offensive Yards per Drive: 32.3, 28.8

To be clear, nothing’s modified for Pickens. He’s nonetheless seeing seven appears to be per contest and has amassed over 40.0% of the air yards. But Pittsburgh has accrued additional yards, run additional red-zone performs and, subsequently, scored additional elements with Russell Wilson beneath center. It’d be easy to say Pickens is solely driving Mr. Unlimited’s wave of producing. However, their two capacity models are the correct match.

Play-action shot performs to the boundary are Wilson’s superpower. Catching them are Pickens’. Since Week 7, the two (along with contributions from the ancillary decisions) have moved the ball on opposing defenses one explosive obtain after the next. Mix in some highly effective runs from Najee Harris, and likewise you’ve purchased an unbeatable offense. But I’ll put a slight damper on any long-term expectations.

Per TruMedia, Wilson has generated 114 passing yards on perimeter throws (from the sideline to some yards in). That’s the seventh-highest mark on the season amongst all starters. He’s gotten there in three begins. But OK, let’s improve the aperture to go from the numbers to the sideline (nine-yard distance). Here, you’ll uncover 72.6% of Wilson’s passing yards. For some QBs, we have now now to gauge their margin for error qualitatively. In Wilson’s case, we already notice it’s 9 yards on each facet of the sphere.

Expecting any three-game sample to proceed is a difficult ask. Regardless, Pickens is a low-end WR1 for the rest of the season. If Wilson regresses, Pickens’ targets and air yards give him a viable flooring. And with matchups in opposition to the Ravens’ and Bengals’ secondaries on the schedule, we must be score him inside the best 12 for the foreseeable future.

Atlanta’s RB1 is Bijan Robinson, correct?

I must’ve left the “right?” half off the half header. There’s no debate proper right here. Bijan Robinson is the RB1 for Atlanta. Watching him play emphasizes how his imaginative and prescient, burst and vitality work in tandem to carry defenders into the tip zone. Accordingly, his superior metrics align with the tape.

• Rushing Success Rate: 54.2% (1st out of 18 qualifiers – min 50.0% dashing share)

• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 23.2% (4th)

• Adjusted Yards after Contact per Attempt: 3.6 (tenth)

On the one hand, we wish atmosphere pleasant RBs. Whether their effectiveness is a product of run-blocking or their intrinsic skills, we’re capable of rely on them to revenue from their work. On the flip facet, usually we’d fairly take projectable workloads. And 19.6 touches per recreation (seventh-most) is an RB I’d want on my roster.

But then I see baffling personnel modifications in high-leverage circumstances that make me pause.

No, Robinson wasn’t injured. He hadn’t run the ball proper right down to the one-yard line on an explosive play, each. And however, OC Zac Robinson observed match to ram Tyler Allgeier into the Saints’ defensive entrance three straight situations. What made the selection even increased was Robinson coming in on fourth down and scoring. However, I gained’t let a few goal-line carries deter me from valuing Robinson as a high-end RB1.

• Target Share (closing 5 video video games): 17.5% (2nd)

• Yards per Route Run: 1.71 (Third)

• Receiving Yards per Game: 36.0 (4th)

I talked closing week about thresholds for top-three RBs. You’re each The Juggernaut as a runner or earn work as a rusher and receiver. Despite Allgeier inflicting a panic every few weeks, Robinson now finds himself in good agency. He’s averaged 5.2 targets per recreation whereas sustaining a preserve on 56.0% of the totes. And for these questioning about his goal-line utilization, Robinson did take your complete touches from contained within the five-yard line once more in Week 7. Besides, with Atlanta’s upcoming schedule, Robinson’s receiving work could be the sting that retains him inside the excessive 12.

• Week 11 at DEN: Ninth-fewest (dashing YPG allowed to RBs), 4th-most (PPR elements allowed to RBs)

• Week 13 vs LAC: Seventh-fewest,Twelfth-most

• Week 14 at MIN: Third-fewest,Eleventh-most

The matchups lend themselves to a multi-faceted RB. Before you ask, Allgeier has earned a number of objective in a recreation merely twice this yr and hasn’t seen a cross thrown his technique since Week 7. Allgeier nonetheless has contingent value nevertheless its Robinson’s backfield. And collectively along with his dual-threat functionality, he’ll hold as an RB1 for the rest of the season.

Christian McCaffrey received right here once more, nevertheless all of his fantasy elements didn’t (however)

I understand quite a lot of gamers had been prepared two and a half months for closing Sunday. Christian McCaffrey’s return was one in all many excessive storylines heading into the weekend. I’d be ready to guess fantasy seasons hinged on a robust debut. However, 16.7 PPR elements don’t actually really feel that good.

Bucky Irving (17.7 elements) and Kareem Hunt (17.0), two guys off the waiver wire, scored additional. Actually, every Tampa RBs had better scores than the consensus 1.01. However, there’s additional to take away from CMC’s first recreation once more than the sector score.

Let’s start collectively along with his dashing workload.

McCaffrey’s 13 carries had been good for 68.0% of the backfield alternate options. Behind him, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo blended for two dashing makes an try. Otherwise, it was the McCaffrey current as if we had been once more in 2023. And don’t concern. The 39 yards (or 3.0 yards per carry) caught my eye, too. But there’s some context to his day as a runner.

Pause the video above at 0:01 seconds and rely what variety of defenders are at or inside 5 yards of the highway of scrimmage. I counted eight, and it wasn’t an uncommon sight for the 49ers. McCaffrey ran into stacked containers on 53.8% of his makes an try. On the season, 32 completely different RBs have had associated contact shares and comparable stacked area prices. As a gaggle, that that they had a imply 40.0% success value on 4.3 yards per carry. McCaffrey had a 30.8% success value whereas averaging 3.0 YPC. Given his time away, I’m ready to current him each week to get once more on observe.

Besides, his pass-catching acumen is what stole the current anyway.

McCaffrey was the 49ers’ WR2 on Sunday with seven targets. That was greater than what Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall (i.e., the precise WRs) noticed. But it’s not simply the variety of seems to be CMC received however the sort and their impact on the offense.

• Passing Success Rate (on early downs): 52.5% (Weeks 1-9), 70.8% (Week 10)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.19, 0.57

• Yards per Passing Play: 9.8, 11.6

As proven above, HC Kyle Shanahan can ship McCaffrey deep down the sector on a wheel path to get him the ball. He doesn’t should be a short-area choice. Subsequently, the passing sport strikes extra effectively, takes extra stress off Brock Purdy and units them up for extra manageable third downs.

With McCaffrey again, San Francisco may rotate in more of its exotic looks to choose up chunk positive aspects. It’s not nearly what McCaffrey can do with the ball in his hand. But what his presence forces defenses to honor. So, regardless of the dearth of huge outcomes, the workload is a robust indicator of San Francisco getting its RB1 again, and the manufacturing will quickly comply with.